Divorce Calculations

Aug 8, 2012 by

Nearly everyone knows that getting divorced can cost a fortune in the United States today and the price can easily skyrocket to tens of thousands of dollars depending on the people and the assets involved. Some people are beginning to think the idea of purchasing divorce insurance every month might actually now make sense for many modern relationships. The North Carolina-based SafeGuard Guaranty Corporation thought divorce insurance was such a good idea they created their own divorce insurance product called WedLock that covers the costs of legal proceedings in a divorce as well as any other expenses that might arise like moving to a new apartment or house after a divorce.

One of the most interesting aspects of the SafeGuard WedLock divorce insurance program was the creation of an online Divorce Probability Calculator to help people make up their minds about whether they really need divorce insurance. It’s a bit of a stretch to imagine that an online test could deliver accurate results concerning people’s propensity toward such an emotional issue like divorce, but WedLock claims its calculator can predict the probability of divorce within a 13% margin of error.

That means the probability calculator is not 100% accurate, as no one could ever predict every divorce, but the program has shown to be right 87% of the time when predicting the outcome of long-term marriages. It is also accurate enough to be very entertaining if you like to speculate on things like relationships.

The calculator uses census data collected from more than 20,000 people over the last 15 years. The formulas used to create the calculator are based primarily on information gleaned from interviews with 10,847 women age 15-44 in 1995 and 12,571 men and women aged 15″“44 in 2002. The interviews were conducted by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics as part of a National Survey of Family Growth.

While WedLock admits that some people are exceptions to the statistical data, they do point to the fact that the numbers show only 1 in 3 couples will make to 20 years of successful marriage. The odds will be in your favor if you can avoid the issues that have proven result in divorce for the majority of the general public.

Divorce probability factors:

“¢    Past Marriages – First marriage have lowest risk of divorce.
“¢    Race ““ Lowest risk if you’re Asian and you married someone of the same race.
“¢    Employment –    You must be employed to stay married.
“¢    Family Income ““ Best if over $70,000 annual    
“¢    Age ““ Lower risk for those over 28.
“¢    Religion ““ Going to church lowers risk.    
“¢    Education ““ The more the better.    
“¢    Family Marriage History ““ Best if parents are still married    
“¢    Premarital Sex – Victims of rape or child molestation have increased risk of divorce.    
“¢    Conflict Resolution ““ Couples who don’t argue last longer.    
“¢    Drug & Alcohol ““ Non-users fare best.    
“¢    Mental History ““ A history of mental illness or depression increases risk of divorce.
“¢    Children & Marriage ““ Having children out of wedlock increases risk.
“¢    Age Difference ““ Best if men are 5 years older.     
“¢    Cohabitation –     Cohabitation before marriage increases risk.
“¢    1st Birth ““ Best if child is born more than 7 months after marriage.
Depending on how each individual person rates on the WedLock Divorce Probability Calculator, they will either be told they have a low divorce probability and receive congratulation, or they will get the bad news that they are part of a demographic of people that have the lowest long term marriage success rate. While the news may not always be good, knowing you are at risk in advance could never hurt.


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